As the year 2024 draws to a close, many prospective immigrants to Canada are eagerly anticipating the release of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) through the Express Entry system. These ITAs are crucial for those hoping to gain permanent residency in Canada. By examining past patterns and understanding the myriad factors at play, we can make informed estimates on how many ITAs might be issued by the end of December. Here’s an analysis of what to expect from the upcoming draw and who might be likely recipients.
ITA Projections for December 2024:
Based on historical data from 2021 to 2023, we estimate that approximately 3,522 ITAs may be issued in December 2024. This figure considers past issuance trends relative to the upcoming year’s immigration targets. However, this is merely an estimate and actual issuance numbers may vary due to changes in policy or immigration objectives.
Key Considerations Affecting ITA Issuance:
- Immigration Levels Plan Targets:
- The number of ITAs is closely linked with Canada’s Immigration Levels Plan, which outlines the annual target for permanent resident admissions.
- Admissions encompass final approval of candidates, either at a port of entry or within Canada itself.
- Processing Times Matter:
- It’s important to recognize that not all ITAs translate to immediate landings due to processing times, which can range from six to 16 months.
- As per IRCC communications from mid-2024, most of the ITAs issued from July onwards are anticipated to contribute toward achieving the 2025 immigration goals.
Methodology for Estimation:
For a more precise estimate of potential ITA issuance in December, it’s prudent to analyze the ITA distribution pattern from July to December against the subsequent year’s landing target as stipulated in the Immigration Levels Plan.
Estimation of ITA Issuances for December Based on Historical Trends
Understanding who might receive these valuable invitations involves analyzing score cut-offs and trends observed throughout the year. Candidates with higher Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores usually have better chances during these draws.
While predicting exact numbers can be challenging due to various influencing factors, historical trends offer considerable insight. Potential immigrants should stay informed on any announcements related to IRCC plans that may affect their chances.
Assuming that the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) will maintain their pattern consistent with years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, the issuance of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) typically constitutes between 43% and 46% of the subsequent year’s immigration target from July 1 to December 31. Despite variations during COVID years, this trend has held in non-COVID years, which provides a foundation for current projections.
Historical Context of ITA Issuances:
- 2018: 34,738 ITAs issued | Target: 74,900 | Percentage: 46.38%
- 2019: Viewed as an outlier with a higher percentage at 61.55%
- 2022: 25,509 ITAs issued | Target: 55,900 | Percentage: 45.63%
- 2023: 35,750 ITAs issued | Target: 82,800 | Percentage: 43.18%
- 2024: Projected with data showing approximately 50,718 ITAs issued | Target: 110,770 | Percentage: 45.79%
Excluding the anomaly in 2019, analysis of these figures yields an average issuance rate of approximately 45.245% for setting expectations in projecting future trends.
Forecast for December ITA Issuances for the Remainder of the Year:
For the upcoming year of 2025, IRCC has delineated an immigration goal of attracting 124,680 new immigrants through its Express Entry program. So far within the current year’s period from July to November, a total of 52,888 ITAs have been extended. This figure represents precisely 42.42% of the upcoming year’s target.
Anticipating that the IRCC will parallel its historical proportions from previous years (excluding outliers), it is conceivable that December might see additional issuances accounting for around another estimated percentage—specifically aligning with an average increase up to approximately 2.825% more of next year’s designated admission intentions.
Should these assumptions materialize as expected, approximately another estimated delivery of about 3,522 additional ITAs could be foreseen in December of this ongoing year to individuals in Canada’s Express Entry pool.
Cautious optimism must accompany this forecast as tangible certainty lacks given annual variables and strategic adjustments IRCC maintains discretion over—further implications may arise due to unknown dynamics impacting processing cycles or refusal frequencies tending across their existing frameworks; thus projected figures remain subject to adaptive revisions as determined necessary by operative monitoring efforts.
Overview of ITA Eligibility
The Immigration Levels Plan set forth by IRCC offers insights into which candidates in the Express Entry pool are most likely to receive Invitations to Apply (ITAs). The 2025-2027 Levels Plan has redefined the Federal High-Skilled allocation into two distinct categories—“Federal Economic Priorities” and “In-Canada Focus”—handled through the federal system. These categories determine the total number of admissions through the Express Entry system for 2025.
Federal Economic Priorities Category
Allocated 41,700 admissions, this category targets candidates with professional skills and experience suited to Canada’s economic needs. It focuses on sector-specific selections and seeks candidates with high proficiency in French. For 2025, eligible criteria include:
- Healthcare occupations
- Trade occupations
- French-language proficiency
Moreover, there’s a planned increase in targets for Francophone immigrants outside Quebec, aiming to grow from 8.5% of all admissions in 2025 to 10% by 2027.
In-Canada Focus Category
With an allocation of 82,980 admissions, this category prioritizes candidates already residing in Canada. This approach aims to meet immigration goals without significantly increasing population levels. Research supports that these individuals generally integrate well into Canada’s workforce. In 2025, this includes:
- Canadian Experience Class (CEC) candidates
- Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) candidates within Express Entry-aligned streams
- Potentially professionals from the Federal Skilled Worker Program (FSWP)
- Possibly those under the Federal Skilled Trades Program (FSTP)
The remaining 3,522 ITAs are likely destined for candidates within CEC programs, PNP streams, or those exhibiting strong French language skills or specific professional backgrounds in healthcare or trades.
Recent Trends in Express Entry Draws
The recent pattern observed from Express Entry draws between August and December 2024 shows:
- Canadian Experience Class: Conducted 7 draws
- Provincial Nominee Program: Held 7 draws
- French Language Proficiency: Facilitated 4 draws
- Trade Occupations: Conducted 1 draw
- Healthcare Occupations: Held 1 draw
